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Pudge Heart of Tarrasque Timing

Heart of Tarrasque was bought 99 times on Pudge before 30:00 in this data; the most purchases (37.4%) came in the 25:00–30:00 window. The two 95% intervals overlap, so this sample shows no clear win-rate difference between buying Heart of Tarrasque by 25:00 and buying it later.

Patch 7.41Updated: Purchases before 30:00: 99Not patch-specific
DetailsSource: OpenDota public matches. These statistics are not filtered by patch; the patch shown is the latest one OpenDota lists. Patch released: . OpenDota's patch list has had no new entry for 196 days, so a newer game patch may already exist. How we calculate this

Win rate by purchase minute

050100by7:30n=07:30–10:00n=0low10:00–12:00n=2low12:00–15:00n=3low15:00–20:00n=277320:00–25:00n=306225:00–30:00n=37
Bars: win rate of games in which the item was bought in that time window (scale 0-100%, dashed line at 50%). Thin line: 95% interval. Time windows with fewer than 30 purchases get only a grey stub marked "low": too few games for a rate.
Pudge win rate by Heart of Tarrasque purchase time
BoughtPurchasesWin rate95% intervalNote
by 7:300——No purchases
7:30–10:000——No purchases
10:00–12:00250.0%9.4%–90.5%Low sample
12:00–15:00366.7%20.8%–93.8%Low sample
15:00–20:002770.4%51.5%–84.2%Low sample
20:00–25:003073.3%55.5%–85.8%
25:00–30:003762.2%46.1%–75.9%

Earlier or later?

DATA

  • Bought by 25:00: 71.0% won (62 purchases, 95% interval 58.7%–80.8%).
  • Bought between 25:00 and 30:00: 62.2% won (37 purchases, 95% interval 46.1%–75.9%).

The split at 25:00 is the time window edge closest to the middle purchase, chosen from purchase times only, never from results.

INTERPRETATION

This is a correlation, not the effect of the purchase. Purchase time and the result are linked both ways: a game that is going well brings gold sooner, and a game that is going badly delays every item. Do not read a higher bar as "buy it earlier and you will win more".

How this is measured

  • Source: OpenDota item timing data for Pudge (parsed public matches). Only matches whose replay was parsed are included, so this is not every public game.
  • The provider keeps a rolling window of recent weeks and does not filter by patch; the patch shown above is the latest one OpenDota lists.
  • Each purchase counts once, so buying the item twice in one game counts twice. Purchases after 30:00 are not in the data. The time windows are the provider's.
  • A time window needs at least 30 purchases (the site's minimum sample, the same as for matchups) before its win rate is shown; the page exists only while at least two windows reach it.

Heart of Tarrasque: item facts

Cost:
5,100 gold
passive: Behemoth's Blood
Your health regeneration is increased by 1.5% of your missing health.

Item text from OpenDota game data (English, as in the game client).

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