Dota 2 Draft Odds
Pick up to five heroes for each team. The page estimates Radiant's win chance from how those heroes do overall and against each other in public matches, using a model that is published only after it beats a no-draft guess on matches it was not fitted on.
—The model is not published yet: it has not passed the calibration check. Calibration matches collected so far: 1,640; the check needs at least 1,000 held-out matches and must beat a side-only guess. Until then the page shows no odds rather than an untested number.
How the odds are calculated
INTERPRETATION
- Each hero's overall win rate and every Radiant-versus-Dire hero pair's result in public matches (OpenDota, not filtered by patch).
- A pair counts only by how far it differs from what the two heroes' overall win rates predict; pairs with few games are pulled toward zero.
- Three weights (overall strength, pair effects, side) are fitted on older public matches and tested on the newest ones.
- Not included: allies' synergy (no data source), player skill, rank, roles and lanes. That is why the number is an estimate, not a prediction.